‘Disruptive but doable’: University professor on Heathrow’s £49 billion expansion plans
Posted on: 26 November, 2025
By Linda Serck
The UK Government announced on 25 November it will back Heathrow Airport’s third runway scheme. It forms the basis of the airport’s £49 billion expansion plans that involves rerouting London’s orbital M25 motorway and adding a new terminal. Professor Samer Bagaeen, Head of Town Planning at the University of the Built Environment, spoke to the BBC to unpack the scale, complexity, and the risks of what lies ahead.
The Government’s decision about Heathrow, Europe’s busiest airport, has reignited fierce debate around cost, disruption, and the future of UK aviation. But for those working in planning and infrastructure – and for the communities living around the airport – the more urgent question is ‘how’ a project of this magnitude can actually be delivered.
Professor Bagaeen, a highly regarded expert in urban planning, was invited to speak on BBC 5Live and BBC Radio Berkshire on the day of the announcement.
The £49 billion price tag
A central topic around this globally important infrastructure project is cost. Asked by the BBC whether £49 billion was reasonable for such a scheme, Professor Bagaeen emphasised that at this stage, while the price tag was no surprise, the figure is little more than an estimate.
He said: “Everything could change – from the price of material to the cost of labour and to the cost of taking it through that planning inspectorate process.”
He added: “Clearly what’s happening is the government is effectively giving an indication to potential contractors who would have to be signed up to the project even before a decision is made by the Secretary of State.
“This is because they have to build this into their project timelines, they have to allocate resources for it, they have to begin to source material for it, and none of that’s easy.”
Moving the M25
The Government has stated that no final decision will be taken until at least 2029 (once the scheme has gone through the full Development Consent Order process). However, one element of the proposal causing widespread public alarm is the need to divert a section of the M25 to accommodate the new runway.
Professor Bagaeen said that the engineering is indeed complex, but not unprecedented.
“It’s not straightforward,” he said, “but if you’ve used the M25 recently at Junction 10, at the Wisley interchange, you’ll have seen major works where intersections were moved to create more capacity. That took 24 months for the major works – the entire project timeline is 40 months, so these things can be done.
“It’s about building that disruption into the work plan.”
He stressed that the scale of upheaval around Heathrow will be far greater:
“It will be disruptive especially for the two villages north of Heathrow – places like Harmondsworth and Harlington have been fighting this for years. And if Junction 10 was disruptive, this will be many times more so.”
Keeping Heathrow running during construction: the job skills challenge
The expected major upheaval also raises the question about how to move a motorway and complete the upgrades while keeping a major airport running. Professor Bagaeen highlighted that the major skills shortage in the built environment was a key issue in this regard.
“The actual management of the works, it will take a lot of expertise and very good project managers, and we don’t have that at the moment.
“If you think about the technical expertise that we need for the built environment alone, we’re currently looking at a shortage of 200,000 people over the next five years.
“We’ve got a shortage of project managers, people in construction, planning, surveying – everyone who’s going to be part of this massive building project when it starts.”
Keeping Heathrow running during construction: the resilience challenge
Professor Bagaeen also said the recent fire at Heathrow, which shut down parts of the airport for days, exposes concerns about operational resilience – especially in light of the planned major upgrades at the airport.
“That fire had been flagged to Heathrow months before it shut the airport down,” he said.
“It raises questions about resilience and the airport’s capacity to deal with disruption.”
He welcomed the proposal’s commitment to rebuilding parts of the airport’s internal infrastructure, but warned that keeping the airport fully operational while expanding it will stretch systems and staff to their limits.
“It’s one of the biggest infrastructure projects in the country,” he said.
“It’s going to put the airport under a lot of stress. It’s not just the runway – it’s the tunnels, the terminal works, the transport upgrades.
“To keep operations going the airport needs to get everything right every single day of every single week of the year – not on and off.
“That will be the big challenge for Heathrow.”
How long until planes can take off from the third runway?
The BBC asked Professor Bagaeen the inevitable question: when might the first flights take off from a third runway? He stressed that this was dependent on financing, recruitment of a skilled workforce, and the planning process all staying on schedule.
“It’s a tough one,” he said. “The nearest comparable project is the Lower Thames Crossing, where construction is expected to take six to seven years. Heathrow would be fairly similar, so I’d say 2033 to the mid-2030s.”
Heathrow expansion plans: enormous opportunity but enormous pressure
In summary, the Heathrow expansion plans could unlock national economic benefits, strengthen international connectivity and create thousands of jobs. But the road – and runway – to that future is rife with challenges.
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